The BWF-CERTIFIRE

Fire Door & Doorset Scheme Quarterly Trends Report

Positive outlook for timber fire doors

Overview

“The economy grew twice as fast in the first six months of the year than previously thought according to statistics” says Mike Rigby whose company produced this report. “The 'slowdown' which contributed to the Bank of England's cut in interest in July may not have happened and this is fuelling speculation that interest rates will go up in the coming months.

“The construction sector has been boosted by government spending on hospitals, prisons, roads and rail. The spending spree has come as a relief to the industry. Homeowners too are still spending freely, funding home improvements with record levels of mortgage borrowing.”

“Activity in the housing market appears to be recovering from the sharp slowdown in the first half of the year and house price growth remains strong. House prices rose 1% in September putting prices 15.5% higher than last year according to the Nationwide. Figures from the Bank of England show that the number of mortgages approved in August soared to the highest level in a decade. But the massive rise in the last two years has led economists to predict a sharp slowdown over the next year or so. The Bank of England expects it to slow to zero in the next two years”.

Sales, quarter-on-quarter

In the three months July-September thirty seven percent of merchants reported an increase in sales of timber fire doors compared with the previous three months. Five percent saw a decrease and fifty eight percent stayed the same.

The difference between the number of companies reporting an increase over those reporting a decrease is the net balance, expressed as a percentage. A positive net balance indicates growth, a net balance of zero implies little has changed.

On this basis, a net 32% of merchants increased sales of timber fire doors in the last three months compared with the previous three (chart 1). The larger the outlet the more widespread the growth. Merchants across all regions recorded increases, especially in the North (43%). Outlets belonging to national and local chains were slightly ahead of independents. Merchants who sold between 50-99 fire doors per branch in September had the strongest sales (60%) followed by merchants who sold between 100-200 fire doors. Only merchants who sold less than 10 timber fire doors per outlet saw no change. Sixty five percent of merchants who increased sales reported growth of more than 10%.

A net 45% of merchants saw timber fire doors sales to the new build housing sector increase as did 32% of merchants to the commercial RMI sector. A net 27% and 26% of merchants also reported higher sales to the housing RMI sector and new build non-housing.

Timber Fire Door manufacturers also expanded with a net 27% reporting increases compared with the previous three months.

July-September sales compared with the previous three months - by size

Size	Increase	Decrease	Same	Total	Base
Small	26%	9%	65%	100	46
Medium	46%	3%	51%	100	37
Large	47%	-	53%	100	17
Total	37%	5%	58%	100	100

July-September sales compared with the previous three months - by region

Region	Increase	Decrease	Same	Total	Base
South	41%	3%	56%	100	37
Midlands	33%	7%	60%	100	27
North	48%	5%	47%	100	21
Scotland	20%	7%	73%	100	15
Total	37%	5%	58%	100	100

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“As a fire door manufacturer we comply with the new standards of building regulations. When fire doors leave our factory they are built to specification. But by the time they get to the end user they may have been handled by up to three times. It is compulsory that the doors are still within the right specification when fitted, and we supply detailed instruction for any alteration that might be needed.

“We have seen an increase in sales of both 30 and 60 minute fire resistant doors since the regulations have been in place, and look forward to a further increase of up to 10% next year”.

Mr Derrick Bartlett, Partner
Caledonian Plywood Company, Glasgow

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Sales, year-on-year

More than a net two in five merchants increased sales of timber fire doors compared with the same period last year (chart 3). As with quarter on quarter sales, the larger the outlet the more widespread the growth. Merchants in the North and the South (57% and 49%) were strongest. National and local chain branches did better than independent outlets. Merchants selling between 100-200 timber fire doors per branch in September recorded more growth than others compared with same time last year. Among merchants who sold more, 68% increased by more than 10%.

Ninety percent of all timber fire doors sold by merchants in the last 12 months had a 30 minute fire resistance rating. The remaining 10% had a 60 minute rating. A net 34% of merchants increased sales of FD30 fire doors and a net 22% of outlets increased sales of FD60 fire doors in the last 12 months. Just under one in three attribute the increase to building regulations, but new build and conversions of flats and apartments also boosted fire door sales.

Manufacturers sold 73% of their timber fire doors with a FD30 rating, 23% had a FD60 rating, three percent a FD90 rating and one percent a rating of FD120.

Manufacturers saw no change in sales in the last three months compared with the same three months last year.

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“We have seen a 10% increase at least, in sales of FD30 fire doors over the last year, This is because of two flat conversions we have supplied fire doors to. New amendments to building regulations stipulate that all door ways in rented properties must now have at least a 30 minute fire check door fitted.

“We expect to see further increases in sales of fire doors over the next 12 months. This is due to public awareness and demand in wanting a more secure home. We now offer a large readily available range of standard size decorative fire doors in a choice of patterns and veneers”.

Mr Mark Carson, Director
Carson Fletcher Timber Ltd, Leicestershire

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Sales forecasts

Sales expectations for the next three months are modest with a net 4% of merchants expecting higher sales (chart 4). The picture is mixed with small and large outlets forecasting growth, but with medium sized merchants expecting subdued sales in the period. Expectations are positive across the UK except in the North where merchants expect sales to decrease. A net 10% of national and local chain outlets expect further growth in the next three months. Independents are more cautious.

A net 33% of manufacturers expect to grow sales in the next three months compared with the previous three. Compared with the same three months last year a net 60% of manufacturers expect increased sales.

Prices

Selling prices increased in the three months to October. Overall a net 15% of merchants put up prices (chart 6). Small and medium sized merchants (24% and 14%) put up prices but large merchants dropped them. Outlets across the country recorded price increases but merchants in the North were more cautious. The picture is divided with more independent outlets achieving increases (24%) compared with national outlets (6%).

Price forecasts

Almost three in five merchants expect to put up prices in the coming 12 months. This trend is reflected across the country among merchants of all sizes, independent and national branches.

Buying Prices

A net 19% of merchants had to pay more for fire doors in the last three months compared with the previous three (chart 6). This is reflected across all merchant sizes, regions and type.

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“I estimate a 25% increase in fire door sales over the next year. Many of Gloucester's large existing three storey town houses, too big and expensive for ordinary families, are being converted into 1 and 2 bedroom flats for rent and sale. In addition we're seeing lots of activity in the new construction of three storey buildings in blocks of 3 or 4 with 2 and 3 bedrooms. With the new building regulations stipulating that fire doors must be used in all cases except for bathroom and toilet areas this activity will contribute to growth in the market.”

Mr Gordon Clark, Door Manager
Gloucester Timber, Gloucester

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Prospects

The overall prospects for the timber fire door market are healthy with a net 30% of merchants more confident in their outlook than three months ago (chart 7). Merchants in the South (41%) are particularly positive as are national and local chain branches (41%). Merchant outlets who sold more than 200 timber fire doors in September (67%) were especially positive. Merchants attribute their bullish expectations to increased awareness and tightened safety regulations.

Manufacturers are also positive with a net 47% more confident than they were three months ago.

Sales of fire door components

Sales volumes of all timber fire door components increased with a net 37% of merchants reporting growth in the last three months compared with the previous three (chart 8). More medium sized merchants and those in the North grew sales volumes.

Compared with the same time last year a net 40% of merchants saw their sales of all timber fire door components increase. Again medium sized merchants were ahead (53%). More merchants in the South and North (50%) recorded increases.

A net 22% of merchants expect sales volumes of timber fire door components to increase in the next three months compared with the previous three. Small merchants are most positive. The picture is split regionally with the South (47%) and Scotland expecting growth, while the Midlands (-8%) expect lower sales. National chains and local branches expect to do better than independent outlets.

Problems

Price cutting, and supplier service and availability were both mentioned as the single biggest problem affecting merchants in the last three months by 22% of respondents.

Cash flow and changes in legislation are both mentioned by 20% of manufacturers as their single biggest problem.

Stocks

A net 13% of merchants interviewed built up stocks in the last three months compared with the previous three (chart 10).

Internal/External fire doors

Seventy six percent of all timber fire doors sold are internal fire doors and 23% are external fire doors according to merchants interviewed.

Timber fire doors sold in last 12 months	Merchants' % of fire doors		Manufacturers' % of fire doors
	Internal	External	Internal	External
Flush doors	73%	92%	70%	65%
Panel doors	18%	4%	4%	3%
Die formed doors	3%	-	1%	-
Laminated timber cored flush doors	4%	3%	25%	32%
Other	2%	1%	-	-

Fire door components

Sixty three percent of merchants advise customers on the components required for the timber fire doors they sell. Thirty seven percent say they do not.

The figures are similar for the manufacturers we spoke to where 67% advise their customers on components and 33% do not.

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“We supply the new build housing sector and currently work at capacity. Over the last three months we have sold approximately 750 fire doors to contractors building residential flats.

“As the risk of fire is much higher with more people living within the same building, regulations demand that both 30 and 60 minute fire resistant doors are fitted to entrance and bedroom doorways of each flat in order to provide a safer environment”.

Mr Darren Whiting, Branch Manager
Woodline Building Products Ltd, Kent

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Effects of 2002 amendments to building regulations

Most merchants in this survey have commented that increased awareness of building regulations have improved their overall sales of timber fire doors.

Most manufacturers say their fabrication of timber fire doors has remained unaffected by the changes in legislation.

Comment

“Following the changes to building regulations in 2000, the Fire Doors market has become increasingly important. A growing market thrives on information, so the time is right to launch the Timber Fire doors Quarterly Trends Survey,” says Richard Lambert, Director of the British Woodworking Federation. The BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme has established the importance of using certificated fire doors. Sponsoring the survey reflects its continuing commitment to growing this market. The strength of the construction sector at the moment means that the outlook is good. “This quarterly trend survey is the first and only survey to provide builders, timber merchants and manufacturers with a regular, credible source of information. In the course of these surveys, we'll be tracking trends by speaking to merchants and manufacturers of all sizes across the country. The results of this first survey are a snapshot of reported sales, forecasts and prices. As further surveys are completed the latest information will be added to charts and tables building up a clear picture of trends as they emerge and the report builds momentum.”

The Timber Fire Doors Survey, a quarterly trends report, is produced by Michael Rigby Associates, and sponsored by The BWF-CERTIFIRE Fire Door & Doorset Scheme in conjunction with Builders' Merchants' News. The aim is to keep a finger on the timber fire doors' market pulse, and to view merchants' and manufacturers' expectations of market movements. Michael Rigby Associates specialises in fact based marketing in home improvements, DIY and building materials markets. The survey covers a representative sample of 100 timber and builders merchants as well as manufacturers. Telephone interviews took place between the 6 and 14 October 2003 across a balanced spread of size of firm and geographical area. Numbers employed was used as an indication of company size. The categories are small (1-9 employees), medium (10-25) and large (over 25 employees). © Copyright Michael Rigby Associates 2003